This free report examines the likely true size of the current Ebola Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Official figures likely underestimate the scale of the outbreak, which genomic and epidemiological evidence suggests may have circulated undetected for nearly two months prior to recognition. To support outbreak size estimation, BlueDot applied a deterministic modelling approach using population movement data and confirmed exported cases identified in neighbouring Uganda prior to border restrictions.
Using this approach, BlueDot estimates the outbreak may have involved approximately 359 cases (95% CI: 74–1,048) as of May 22, 2026, roughly 3.5 times higher than the number of confirmed cases reported at the time. Sensitivity analyses assuming additional undetected exported cases suggest substantially larger outbreak scenarios may also be possible.
This report was compiled and validated by BlueDot’s team of epidemiologists and analysts using BlueDot data, population movement analysis, and publicly available surveillance information.
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