Updated from the May 22, 2026 report.
This free report examines the likely true size of the current Ebola Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Official figures likely underestimate the scale of the outbreak, which genomic and epidemiological evidence suggests may have circulated undetected for nearly two months prior to recognition. To support outbreak size estimation, BlueDot applied a deterministic modelling approach using population movement data and confirmed exported cases identified in neighbouring Uganda prior to border restrictions.
As of June 9, 2026, 14 cases of Ebola Bundibugyo virus disease have been imported into Uganda with travel history to the DRC, prompting an updated outbreak size estimate. Using the same methodology as the original analysis, the estimated outbreak size in the DRC is 1,345 cases (95% CI: 735–2,255) — approximately twice the number of confirmed cases. A sensitivity analysis accounting for reduced cross-border movement following Uganda’s land border closure on May 21 yields a higher estimate of 2,689 cases (95% CI: 1,471–4,512).
This report was compiled and validated by BlueDot’s team of epidemiologists and analysts using BlueDot data, population movement analysis, and publicly available surveillance information.
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